The paper evaluate the changes in the voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh between 2002 and 2024 and how such changes affected the electoral direction of the Samajwadi Party (SP). The investigation uses both official data by the Election Commission of India and CSDS-Lokniti National Election Studies (NES) infrastructure on surveys conducted at the group level to track the changes in votes across five assembly elections (2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022) and intervening Lok Sabha contests (2004, 2009, 2014, 2019, 2024). It can be analysed that the competitiveness of SP was based on its ability to maintain a core OBC-Muslim coalition, as well as go outward when the party-system became volatile. These produce three drivers of change which are organizational capacity and cadres-based mobilization; governance performance and welfare delivery intersect with identity cleavages; and asymmetrical dominance of BJP redefining the competitive environment. Results indicate that the voting in UP is becoming multi-dimensional and it is determined by overlapping cleavages of caste, religion, class, age and the performance of the governing parties instead of throw its weight to axes. The paper adds to the knowledge of social cleavage elasticity, regional party strength in asymmetrical patterns of contests, and opposition adaptive strategies in the modern Indian democracy.
Keywords: Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party, voting behaviour, caste politics, electoral change, Party system.
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